Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Someday putting doctors out of business

In the KGI business class today, a student idly asked “when will computer replacing doctors in diagnosing patients?” Another student said “never”.

It's pretty clear that technology will reduce the labor-intensity of medical care, and also shift some tasks from expensive high-skill people to inexpensive low-skill people. Look at how cars were made by Gottlieb Daimler, Henry Ford, Toyota in the 1970s and then today.

Computers will over the next 20-40 years replace some or all of the role of doctors in diagnosing conditions. It’s too labor intensive and expensive not to become a target. The question is not if, but when, where first and how fast.

The claim will be that it's intended to improve consistency and accuracy, but the real reason will be cost. Claimed improvements in quality — such as for patients who lack access to a specialist for diagnosis — could be used to overcome the opposition of highly educated, compensated and organized physicians.

The initial push thus will come from an organization that both has scale economies and a record of innovating to save pennies. My prediction is that the first major use in North America will fall in one of three categories:
  • US government, probably the Veterans Health Administration
  • An HMO, almost certainly Kaiser Permanente; or
  • A provider serving rural areas, most likely the First Nations and Inuit Health Branch of Health Canada.